Demographics
China is getting old before it gets rich. America has problems too — but also an escape valve.
Demographics is destiny — and China's demographic future is dire. After decades of the one-child policy, China's population is now shrinking, aging rapidly, and facing a workforce collapse that will strain its economy for generations. The US has its own challenges, but one crucial advantage: immigration.
The Big Picture
China's population peaked in 2022 and has been declining ever since. Under the UN medium-variant scenario, China could decline to under 700 million people by 2100 — though actual outcomes depend on fertility response, retirement reform, and productivity gains. The working-age population is shrinking even faster, while the elderly population explodes.
This isn't a problem that can be fixed quickly. Even if China's birth rate returned to replacement level tomorrow, the damage from decades of low fertility is already locked in. The workers who would support China's 2040 economy needed to be born 20 years ago.
Population Trajectories
The Numbers
🇺🇸 United States
- Population (2024)335 million
- Fertility rate1.66
- Median age38.5 years
- 65+ population share17%
- Annual immigration~1 million
- Population growth+0.5%/year
🇨🇳 China
- Population (2024)1.41 billion
- Fertility rate1.0
- Median age39.5 years
- 65+ population share15%
- Annual immigration~0
- Population growth-0.1%/year
China's Demographic Crisis
China's problems stem from the one-child policy (1980-2015), which prevented an estimated 400 million births. The policy achieved its goal of slowing growth — but created a time bomb.
📉 The Problems
- Fertility collapse: At 1.0 births per woman, among the world's lowest — far below 2.1 replacement
- Aging wave: By 2050, ~500 million Chinese over 60 — more than total US population
- Workforce shrinkage: Working-age population (15-64) peaked in 2011, declining by millions annually
- Gender imbalance: 30+ million more men than women
- "4-2-1" burden: One child supporting two parents and four grandparents
🚫 Why It's Hard to Fix
- Policy reversal failed: Ending one-child policy (2015), allowing three (2021) didn't raise births
- Cost of children: Education, housing, childcare costs are prohibitive
- Cultural shift: Young Chinese increasingly prefer smaller families
- No immigration: Unlike US, China has no large-scale immigration tradition
- Math is locked in: Missing workers of 2040 needed to be born in 2020
America's Escape Valve
The US has below-replacement fertility too (1.66). But America has something China doesn't: sustained, large-scale immigration.
🗽 The Immigration Difference
About 1 million legal immigrants arrive annually, plus unauthorized migration. This inflow:
- Offsets below-replacement fertility, keeping population growing
- Brings working-age adults who contribute immediately
- Supplies high-skill talent (40%+ of Fortune 500 founders are immigrants or their children)
- Keeps the median age lower than it would otherwise be
China has minimal immigration. Its trajectory is determined almost entirely by births and deaths — both trending unfavorably.
Strategic Implications
🇨🇳 For China
- Shrinking military-age population limits force expansion
- Rising pension/healthcare costs squeeze other spending
- Workforce decline puts ceiling on economic growth
- Possible pressure to act on Taiwan before decline bites
- Innovation may suffer as young researcher pool shrinks
🇺🇸 For the United States
- Sustained population supports long-term growth
- Immigration brings talent in AI, biotech, engineering
- Larger future workforce relative to China than today
- Aging still strains entitlements — reform needed
- Immigration politics create policy uncertainty